Scenarios

Material for discussion on possible directions of the sea use development

The Use of the Sea scenarios are built in order to identify possible maritime spatial development options (alternatives), to perform their strategic assessment and as a result to arrive at an optimal allowed sea use solution that is satisfactory to stakeholders and society.

Scenario development method is applied in strategic planning and decision making process when the possible spatial use is dependant from various, often controversial interests and sectorial priorities as it is in the case of the Baltic Sea area under the jurisdiction of the Republic of Latvia. Scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts, but rather alternative descriptions (stories, projections, figures/pictures) on how the future might unfold by evaluating various factors determining the development.

Depending on evolution of the determining factors in connection with the policy and societal choices (priorities) four distinct by priorities (radical) development scenarios are identified:

Scenario A: Economic growth

Scenario B: Social well-being

Scenario C: Resilient marine ecosystem

Scenario D: Development within common space of Baltic Sea region.

Narrative story lines of the scenarios are presented in the Scenarios desription (English version).

Scenarios

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